Pensions & Investments: Corporate Plans Keeping Eye on Funded Status, NEPC Survey Says
NEPC’s Jake Mallinson was quoted in a recent Pensions & Investments article that covers NEPC’s 2023 Defined Benefit survey to discuss why higher rates and inflation are actually good news for funded status and frozen plans. View the article on Pensions & Investments’ site here.
U.S. corporate DB plans continue to see their funding ratios improve and remain focused on funded status, a survey from NEPC indicated.
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“It pays to be a saver,” said Jake Mallinson, consultant with NEPC’s defined benefit team, in a Nov. 9 news release. “Higher rates and higher inflation are typically good news for funded status and frozen plans, as higher discount rates reduce the value of liabilities. While equity valuations are down, forward-looking return assumptions (especially for fixed income investments) fare better.”
Click here to continue reading the full Pensions & Investments article.
Investor's Business Daily: Eight Stocks Dominate S&P 500's Impressive 8-Day Rally
NEPC’s Jennifer Appel was recently quoted in the Investor’s Business Daily to discuss insights from our Q3 quarterly market webinar, as well as outlook around a potential recession. View the article in it’s entirety on Investor’s Business Daily’s site here.
Watch out Magnificent Seven. There’s a new set of eight S&P 500 stocks taking off in the ongoing eight-day rally.
Eight S&P 500 stocks, including consumer discretionary Expedia Group (EXPE), industrial Generac Holdings (GNRC) and tech play Gartner (IT), rallied 20% or more in the market’s eight-trading-day winning streak kicked off on Oct. 27, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith. This solid 6.3% rally pushed the S&P 500 itself back up an impressive 14% for the year.
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Almost as soon as the calendar flipped into November, investors turned more hopeful for next year. “Despite rising interest rates, a recession in the U.S. for 2024 seems unlikely,” said Jennifer Appel, senior investment director at NEPC
International Business Times: Stocks And Bonds Surge As The Tone Changes On Wall Street – Will The Rally Last?
NEPC’s Phillip Nelson was recently quoted in the International Business Times to discuss how market conditions over the past two years have created more asset allocation opportunities to hit long-term goals. View the article in it’s entirety on IBT’s site here.
U.S. stocks and bonds staged a strong rally last week as the sentiment changed on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 ended at 4,358, up 4.8 % for the week; the Dow Jones at 34,061, up 4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq at 13,478, up 5.1%.
Meanwhile, bond prices rose, sending yields tumbling. For instance, the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond ended the week with a yield of 4.456%, a half-basis point below the yield it was trading a couple of weeks ago.
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“Phillip R. Nelson, partner and director of asset allocation at NEPC, recommends a diversification approach to balance risks. “The higher levels of interest rates and the shifts we’ve seen in the last two years give you more asset allocation options to hit your goals in the long term,” he said.”
NEPC Survey Shows Defined Benefit Plans Are Focusing on Funded Position To Find Stability Amid Bearish View of Markets
BOSTON–NOVEMBER 9, 2023–(BUSINESS WIRE)–NEPC, LLC, one of the country’s largest research-driven investment consultants and OCIO providers, today published the 11th annual edition of its Defined Benefit (DB) Trends Survey, which examines funded status (“F/S”), forward-looking expected return on assets (EROA), and shifts in investor sentiment. Respondents to the 2023 survey included 51 corporate and healthcare organizations with the majority of plans ranging in size from $100 million to over $3 billion.
This year’s data showcases that 53% of respondents have a bearish view of markets over the next 12 months. Respondent sentiment demonstrates a full reversal from the results of the 2021 survey, where (56%) of respondents were bullish and 44% of respondents were bearish. NEPC noted that clients are more focused on their funded status position rather than their portfolio’s absolute return amidst this period of macroeconomic market volatility.
“It pays to be a saver. Higher rates and higher inflation are typically good news for funded status and frozen plans as higher discount rates reduce the value of liabilities. While equity valuations are down, forward-looking return assumptions (especially for fixed income investments) fare better,” said Jake Mallinson, Consultant on NEPC’s Defined Benefit team. “Armed with an understanding of the proactive drivers of volatility, NEPC has been working with clients to pull on different levers, such as maintaining a disciplined hedging strategy, to ensure plan sponsors are best able to navigate sustained volatility.”
NEPC’s 2023 survey results also show the continued climb in funded status among DB plans. 74% of plans in the 2023 Survey reported a funded status above 90%, a noticeable increase from 2021, where only 63% of plans were above 90% funded. Large plans (over $1B) reported better funded status than small plans (under $1B). 65% of large plans reported a F/S of over 100% while only 23% of small plans reported a similar status.
“Total DB pension assets are dropping due the Feds efforts to combat inflation. Meanwhile, discount rates are also rising, and plans’ funded statuses are increasing as interest rates are going up. Environments like this demonstrate why liability driven investments work, especially as a risk management tool,” said Brad Smith, Partner on NEPC’s Defined Benefit team. “NEPC continues to advise plan sponsors to utilize glide paths and take action to further “de-risk” plans.”
Other key trends highlighted in NEPC’s new survey:
- There seems to be a shift to allocating more assets to LDI from prior years. On average, respondents had 41% of assets allocated to LDI compared to survey results in 2021 where only 30% of assets were allocated to LDI.
- Forward-looking Expected Return on Assets (EROA) reversed course and are trending higher than in previous surveys. 71% of plans indicated they had an EROA of 6% or higher in 2023, a significant jump from NEPC’s most recent data in 2021, where only 52% of plans had an EROA of 6% or higher.
- Respondents still fear a slowdown in global growth is imminent as 42% of respondents selected this as their greatest threat to their investment programs this year.
- 40% of respondents expect Pension Discount Rates to remain the same level over the next year. However, 32% of respondents expect Pension Discount Rates to fall during that same time period, which is surprising given the Fed has stiffened its stance around staying committed to a more hawkish monetary policy going forward.
The Defined Benefit (DB) Trends Survey results can be downloaded here.
About NEPC, LLC
NEPC is an independent investment consultant, private wealth advisor, and OCIO provider serving over 400 retainer clients and $1.4 trillion in total assets. Combining a proprietary research team dedicated to the long-term challenges facing investors with our unique client-centric model, NEPC builds forward-looking investment portfolios for institutional investors and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. To learn more about NEPC, visit nepc.com.
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Emma Rayder
Chief Investment Officer: Will Market Volatility Continue in 2024 and Beyond?
NEPC’s Allan Martin, one of CIO’s 2023 Knowledge Brokers, was recently quoted in an article to discuss the contribution of international trade and an aging global population to market volatility. View the full article on Chief Investment Officer’s site here.
The markets in 2023 have been as unpredictable as they have erratic. Responding requires expert advice, so we asked CIO’s 2023 Knowledge Brokers for their approach to navigating the tumult.
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Until recently, investors enjoyed a long-term bull market during a low-rate environment. With inflation and rate hikes prevalent over the last year, investors may have to change their approach.
“The post-World War II era has been dominated by a period of multinational negation and removal of trade barriers, leading to an unprecedented growth in international trade,” commented Allan Martin, a partner in NEPC.
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The rise of generative artificial intelligence tools could have a profound impact on the markets, for better or worse. On one hand, it could lead to an increase in productivity; on the other, it may lead to layoffs when workers are replaced by AI.
With birth rates falling in much of the developed world, resulting in older and more lopsided populations, younger generations will have to contribute more to keep services such as Social Security funded and will be on the hook for older generations’ pensions.
“In the longer term, the world’s population is aging, and productivity continues to rise, so the norm of wealth distribution based on work performed will be challenged, with significant implications for the return to capital,” Martin commented.
FIN News: Consultants Should Look Beyond Firm Ownership In DEI Efforts: NEPC
NEPC’s Sam Pollack was recently featured in FIN News to discuss NEPC’s multi-faceted approach to portfolio management when it comes to incorporating DEI. Excerpts from the article are shown below. View the article in it’s entirety on FIN News’ site here.
Diverse-owned managers provide an important solution, but not the only one, as endowments and foundations implement investment strategies or policies that incorporate diversity, equity or inclusion goals into their portfolio management.
Though many nonprofits pursue DEI goals with a specific target allocation to strategies managed by diverse-owned firms within their investment portfolios, general investment consultant NEPC prefers taking a multi-faceted approach for its nonprofit clients that goes beyond hiring more diverse-owned or diverse-led managers, said Sam Pollack, a partner and senior member of NEPC’s endowment and foundation practice, in an interview.
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““Yes, we look at a given strategy or firm and if it happens to be diverse-owned or diverse-led. But we want to go deeper and look at what the strategy or firm is doing, what resources do they have access to do this, beyond that firm leadership level. That can extend to accountability reviews as far as their hiring, promotion or retention and their procurement policies as well,” he noted.”
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““We jumped into the fray with the launch of our DEI ratings, which was by design for all managers, not treating diverse owned or divers led as own subset. It’s important to take the same look and shine the same light on all managers and help our clients in seeing what they are doing or not doing,” Pollack added.”
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““The idea of a rating is to share more granular information, not simply mark good or bad, but provide the information to make informed investment decisions,” he noted, adding that many nonprofits lack the capacity to collect the necessary information on their own.
Clients care about this, but they don’t know how to get started or how to start the journey, so to speak. It takes a significant investment in time and resources to dig deeper across the many strategies. We really endeavor to take that deep dive and do it, and to cast that wide net, help clients make productive decisions based on information,” Pollack said.”
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““With the deep dive that we are trying to conduct for clients and make informed and nuanced decisions, seeking out diverse-owned and diverse-led firms is just the first step in that process,” he said.”
Chief Investment Officer: Words of Wisdom
NEPC’s Bill Ryan and Allan Martin, both featured on CIO’s 2023 Knowledge Brokers list, were recently quoted in an article to discuss what lessons they’ve learned over the course of their careers. View the full article on Chief Investment Officer’s site here.
The most fascinating periods in history were filled with tumult and upheaval. 2023 is no different. When selecting CIO’s 2023 Knowledge Brokers, we asked the candidates to tell us what lessons they learned over the course of their careers and how those insights apply in the latest interesting times.
Among the 10 Knowledge Brokers, nine answered CIO’s question about what specific guidance they could offer, and that guidance falls largely into four categories. Paraphrasing what each said, they counseled patience; stressed the importance of both questioning conventional thinking and of holding fast to your convictions; and, lastly, these professionals advised the need to maintain empathy for and connections with colleagues and clients.
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Bill Ryan, a partner in and the head of defined contribution solutions for NEPC, reflected on the value of having patience in the face of change. “Being comfortable with uncertainty and the many things we simply cannot control allows me to maintain focus on the end result for plan participants who put their trust and retirement savings into the hands of plan sponsors and their consultants,” said Ryan.
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Allan Martin, a partner in NEPC, pointed to the importance of insight, the knowledge of fundamentals and constantly incorporating new research into the mix of ideas, but also of having the “fortitude to stay the course when short-term disruptions occur and the courage to act when others are in distress.”
“In volatile and stressful times, it is important to remember that a well-reasoned long-term asset allocation plan, appropriately diversified to provide protection in adverse environments, is the best protection against long-term capital loss,” Martin said.
FIN News: Forthcoming Children's Book Provides Access, Confidence In Financial Literacy
NEPC’s Sarah Samuels was recently featured in FIN News to discuss her forthcoming Children’s book, Braving Our Savings: Holland and London Learn to Invest. Excerpts from the article are shown below. View the article in it’s entirety on FIN News’ site here.
An institutional investment industry veteran has penned a new children’s book that aims to give children the confidence and access to become financially literate.
NEPC Partner Sarah Samuels came from a non-traditional career path, had no guidance, financial education or family history in the industry and understands that many others come from a similar dynamic. So, the mother of two little girls took matters into her own hands in publishing her first children’s book, Braving Our Savings: Holland and London Learn to Invest, to help change the lives of young kids that do not have control over what is put in front of them.
“Unfortunately, many schools are not teaching any personal finance or a general financial education. What’s not being taught at home and not being taught in school gets left by the wayside. These are some very basic life skills that can empower people to break generations-long cycles of making ends meet,” she said.
The concept and underlying theme of bravery is woven throughout the book, whose target audience is children in the first and second grade, and Samuels started a movement called 30 Seconds of Bravery as she believes that if you can do something that is difficult – whether it’s asking for a raise or promotion or doing something big in your personal life – it will change the path of your life.
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“I’m having some really interesting discussions with different nonprofits across the country and I’ll be raising money at some point. I’ll be looking for ways to get as many copies of the book in kid’s hands as we can,” Samuels said.
A GoFundMe is live for donations to children on the 30 Seconds of Bravery movement website and Samuels is looking for people that are willing to provide ideas in order to “amplify the message and get involved.”
“This is a wonderful industry and it should be available to all. Everyone deserves to have [the] type of career path that I was lucky enough to have, but they need our help,” Samuels said.
Braving Our Savings has a target publication date of April 16, which falls during Financial Literacy Month and will be published by Forefront Books, which caters to successful men and women in their respective fields, of publisher Simon & Schuster.
FinancialPlanning: Is Private Equity's AI Gold Rush Happening Too Soon?
NEPC’s Joshua Beers recently wrote an article for Financial Planning that discusses artificial intelligence and the impact it’s having on the private equity space. View the article on FinancialPlanning’s site here.
The private equity AI gold rush is on, with PE and venture capital firms pouring more than $10 billion into the artificial intelligence and machine learning sector in the first half of 2023 alone, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Ultrahigh net worth individuals, families and family offices are playing a key role in this story. These investors place a large portion of their wealth in private equity, providing a significant share of the assets that are funding AI’s development. In some notable cases, family offices are making a direct play on AI — for example, the Duquesne family office recently invested nearly half a billion dollars in AI-focused companies.
It’s easy to see the appeal of AI technologies and the desire to capitalize on them — it is reasonable to expect companies that successfully integrate AI into their business processes to be better positioned for future success. Likewise, firms that create superior AI platforms today will become essential partners for virtually all global businesses. For this reason, a huge number of new ventures in the private equity environment include at least some aspect of AI technology.
Click here to continue reading the full FinancialPlanning article.
The Wall Street Journal: Pension Funds Go Cold on Private Equity
NEPC’s James Reichert, Senior Director of Portfolio Strategy, sat down with The Wall Street Journal to discuss whether alternative investments have fallen out of favor for corporate pensions. James suggests that in today’s inflationary environment, plans may find it more advantageous to invest in publicly traded investment-grade, high-yield bonds and bank loans, without the added complexity and uncertainty of alternative assets. View the article on The Wall Street Journal’s site here.
Locking up funds for a long period is unpopular now because for the first time in years, easy-to-trade corporate bonds and bank loans offer appealing returns, thanks to rising interest rates. That has upended the retirement calculus for America’s corporate giants, after many spent years chasing nontraditional investments whose managers promised they could earn a lot more than stocks and bonds.
Companies now increasingly want quick access to cash so they can buy higher-yielding bonds or sell off retirement obligations to insurance companies. Long lockup periods on private equity and other private market investments mean they can’t easily unwind those complex bets, though.
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The past couple of years have been rocky for private equity. Benchmark private-equity returns turned negative for the year ending March 31, for the first time since the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to a Burgiss Group index that excludes venture capital.
Today, a closed corporate pension plan can likely get the returns the company wants from publicly traded investment-grade and high-yield bonds and bank loans without the uncertainty and complexity of alternative assets, said James Reichert, senior director of portfolio strategy at investment consultant NEPC.
“You don’t necessarily need it,” he said.
Click here to continue reading the full Wall Street Journal article.