The Wall Street Journal: Pension Investment in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High
NEPC’s Oliver Fadly was quoted in a recent Wall Street Journal article to provide insight on how the industry and investors are thinking about the asset class. View the article on The Wall Street Journal’s site here.
North American pension-fund investment in private-market loans reached an eight-year high in 2022, even as banks pulled back on lending and default rates inched upward.
The average share of these retirement funds parked in the illiquid, typically unrated debt has crept up steadily to 3.8%, the highest on record, according to analytics company Preqin. Though a fraction of the overall portfolio, private credit now amounts to more than $100billion in the retirement savings of U.S. and Canadian teachers, police and other public workers, according to a Wall Street Journal estimate based on Federal Reserve data and pension financial reports. And the pensions are planning to add more: Their average target allocation is 5.9%.
. . .
Investment consultant NEPC said in a presentation to the Ohio workers fund last year that many private-credit NEPC managers have had trouble liquidating funds by the promised maturity date.
. . .
But the small scope of private credit in the late 2000s means it is hard to draw conclusions about how the asset class would perform in another crash.
“It’s a little bit more of a nascent asset class and so we try to stress caution there,” said Oliver Fadly, head of private debt at NEPC. “It’s not fully tested.”
Click here to continue reading the full Wall Street Journal article.
Pensions & Investments: SECURE 2.0 Fails to Provide All of the Help Sought by 403(b) Plans
NEPC’s Bill Ryan was quoted in a recent Pensions & Investments article expressing his disappointment that CITs failed to cross the finish line for 403(b) plans. View the article on Pensions & Investments’ site here.
Pensions & Investments: Opportunities Still Exist for CIT-Like Group Trusts in 403(b) Plans
NEPC’s Bill Ryan was quoted in a recent Pensions & Investments article to discuss 403(b) plan investment options after Congress’ failure to let executives offer collective investment trusts. View the article on Pensions & Investments’ site here.
FIN News: Greater Alts. Allocations Help Mega Endowments Rise Above Smaller Peers: Report
NEPC’s “Mega Endowment FY 2022 Returns” report was featured in a recent FIN News article to discuss our findings. View the article on FIN News’ site here.
. . .
There was a case to be made for maintaining allocations to public equities and fixed-income securities coming out of COVID-19, which challenged the merits of diversification, according to Senior Consultant Colin Hatton.
“Higher education endowments have been reducing exposure to diversifying alternatives over the past several years. However, in 2022, we saw that the larger endowments that maintained large allocations to real assets, private equity and hedge funds were rewarded due to macroeconomic factors, mainly high-interest rates and inflation,” Hatton said, in e-mailed commentary.
. . .
“As we look ahead, we expect that real assets and active hedge fund strategies will continue to play an important role in client portfolios, but the near-term differential between public and private market performance should narrow as we head into 2023 and beyond,” Hatton said.
FIN News: Nonprofit News Special Report: 2023 Alternative Investments Outlook
NEPC’s Kristin Reynolds was quoted in a recent FIN News article to discuss vintage years and real estate markets. View the article on FIN News’ site here.
. . .
The historical performance of funds from recessionary periods was one reason that investment consultant NEPC is advising clients to commit to 2023 vintage funds, even if they have concerns about their portfolio’s liquidity, according to Kristin Reynolds, partner and practice leader, endowments and foundations.
“Historically, some of the best vintage years were when markets had a little more distress. If clients are concerned about liquidity, we’ve said to reduce the level of investments to each manager in their portfolio. We think the private equity GPs will start feeling pressure to deploy and they’ll find opportunities,” Reynolds said.
. . .
NEPC’s Reynolds sees that real estate markets are varying based on property type.
“The core real estate funds have seen marks of 10% to 15%, and we’re seeing positive appreciation of industrial, but that’s really off set by off ice and retail, based on changing market dynamics. So, you are getting the inflation hedging, but maybe more so in the broadly diversified funds,” she said.
CIO: Private Market Technology Investments Are Here to Stay
NEPC’s Josh Beers was quoted in a recent Chief Investment Officer article to discuss the reasons why private technology assets are still compelling investments after a challenging year for tech companies. View the article on CIO’s site here.
Despite its prevalence in so many sectors, 2022 was not kind to technology investors. According to Goldman Sachs’ December special issue regarding global macro research, the Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Index (a measure of public equities) lost more than 50% through 2022.
. . .
Market participants in private markets have already seen valuations falter, and private technology assets are not immune to the valuation crunch seen in the technology sector in public markets. “I think we’re going to see [valuations depreciating] more holistically [in 2023],” Beers says.
So-called ‘unicorn’ companies, or private companies with valuations greater than $1 billion, fell 48.3% last year to 308 at the end of November 2022, compared to 596 at the end of 2021, according to Pitchbook data. “When you think about simple investment theory—buy low and sell high—we think that it’s starting to set up for an environment where that could happen,” Beers offers, noting that the drop in valuations could create buying opportunities.
. . .
“The typical path for an exit of a technology company is an IPO,” Beers says. “We’ve come off a period in which IPOs have been fairly robust. Now that window is essentially closed, and I suspect it will be closed for some time.”
While Beers attributes the lack of activity in the IPO market to valuation concerns, Luiña says “not going public is more of a choice than it is the market forces upon them. In the late [1990s], venture companies were funded typically through Series A, Series B and Series C rounds. There was very little private growth equity capital available, so companies really needed to tap the public markets to continue their growth trajectory. A lot of the value creation and a lot of the growth in those companies happened within the public markets.”
Beers verifies that companies are not limited to simply going public to access financing options or exits, as was the case decades ago. “There’s been a growing trend of [general partner]-led secondaries-type transactions in the form of continuation funds,” he says. “Activity in the venture world will start to pick up, providing liquidity to [limited partners] and some longer funds.”
Broadcast Retirement Network: What Employers Are Saying About Retirement Income
NEPC’s Bill Ryan appeared on the Broadcast Retirement Network to discuss what clients are thinking about when it comes to retirement income. View on the BRN website here or watch below.
FIN News: Inflation, Interest Rates Present Biggest Risks To Markets: NEPC Study
NEPC’s Brad Smith was quoted in a recent FIN News article to discuss concerns of plan sponsors found through our 2022 DB Flash Poll. View the article on FIN News’ site here.
The investment consultant’s 2022 DB Trends Flash Poll reveals the biggest risks to markets over the next 12 months in addition to how plan sponsors are assessing their glidepaths and managing allocations against the backdrop of this year’s heightened market volatility.
. . .
“It’s been nearly a decade since plan sponsors have had to keep factors like rapid inflation and rising rates in mind when rebalancing or determining their asset allocation strategies,” said NEPC Corporate Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution consultant Bradley Smith, in a statement.
. . .
“With rising concerns about how corporate profits will likely impact the market in the year ahead, our priority right now is helping ensure that our pension and defined contribution clients are well equipped to mitigate risk and have a clear plan of action in 2023 and beyond,” Smith continued.
ASPPA: Reticence and Risks Rife?
NEPC’s 2022 DB Flash Poll findings were featured in a recent article from the American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries (ASPPA) to discuss risks plan sponsors perceive and anticipate. View the article on ASPPA’s site here.
These are bracing times for retirement savers, and two recent reports offer a window into tensions savers feel and risks plan sponsors perceive and anticipate.
Economic uncertainty can breed slower progress in saving for retirement or even regression, LIMRA suggests. Even before the current economic conditions, they say, nearly 40% of those nearing retirement were very concerned that they would outlive their retirement savings.
. . .
“The investment consulting firm NEPC buttresses the current apprehension. In a November 2022 poll of corporations and non-profits, they report that the ability of the Federal Reserve to manage inflation was the top choice of what the biggest risks are to the markets in the next 12 months. Rising interest rates came in second.
Further, NEPC says that none of the respondents that had frozen their defined benefit plan said that they were going to unfreeze it or that they had even thought about doing so.”
Pensions & Investments: Plan Sponsors See Inflation, Lower Profit Margins as Biggest Risks to Stock Market
NEPC’s Brad Smith was quoted in a recent Pensions & Investments article to discuss concerns of plan sponsors found through our 2022 DB Flash Poll. View the article on Pensions & Investments’ site here.