FIN News: Nonprofit News Special Report: 2023 Alternative Investments Outlook
NEPC’s Kristin Reynolds was quoted in a recent FIN News article to discuss vintage years and real estate markets. View the article on FIN News’ site here.
. . .
The historical performance of funds from recessionary periods was one reason that investment consultant NEPC is advising clients to commit to 2023 vintage funds, even if they have concerns about their portfolio’s liquidity, according to Kristin Reynolds, partner and practice leader, endowments and foundations.
“Historically, some of the best vintage years were when markets had a little more distress. If clients are concerned about liquidity, we’ve said to reduce the level of investments to each manager in their portfolio. We think the private equity GPs will start feeling pressure to deploy and they’ll find opportunities,” Reynolds said.
. . .
NEPC’s Reynolds sees that real estate markets are varying based on property type.
“The core real estate funds have seen marks of 10% to 15%, and we’re seeing positive appreciation of industrial, but that’s really off set by off ice and retail, based on changing market dynamics. So, you are getting the inflation hedging, but maybe more so in the broadly diversified funds,” she said.
CIO: Private Market Technology Investments Are Here to Stay
NEPC’s Josh Beers was quoted in a recent Chief Investment Officer article to discuss the reasons why private technology assets are still compelling investments after a challenging year for tech companies. View the article on CIO’s site here.
Despite its prevalence in so many sectors, 2022 was not kind to technology investors. According to Goldman Sachs’ December special issue regarding global macro research, the Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Index (a measure of public equities) lost more than 50% through 2022.
. . .
Market participants in private markets have already seen valuations falter, and private technology assets are not immune to the valuation crunch seen in the technology sector in public markets. “I think we’re going to see [valuations depreciating] more holistically [in 2023],” Beers says.
So-called ‘unicorn’ companies, or private companies with valuations greater than $1 billion, fell 48.3% last year to 308 at the end of November 2022, compared to 596 at the end of 2021, according to Pitchbook data. “When you think about simple investment theory—buy low and sell high—we think that it’s starting to set up for an environment where that could happen,” Beers offers, noting that the drop in valuations could create buying opportunities.
. . .
“The typical path for an exit of a technology company is an IPO,” Beers says. “We’ve come off a period in which IPOs have been fairly robust. Now that window is essentially closed, and I suspect it will be closed for some time.”
While Beers attributes the lack of activity in the IPO market to valuation concerns, Luiña says “not going public is more of a choice than it is the market forces upon them. In the late [1990s], venture companies were funded typically through Series A, Series B and Series C rounds. There was very little private growth equity capital available, so companies really needed to tap the public markets to continue their growth trajectory. A lot of the value creation and a lot of the growth in those companies happened within the public markets.”
Beers verifies that companies are not limited to simply going public to access financing options or exits, as was the case decades ago. “There’s been a growing trend of [general partner]-led secondaries-type transactions in the form of continuation funds,” he says. “Activity in the venture world will start to pick up, providing liquidity to [limited partners] and some longer funds.”
Broadcast Retirement Network: What Employers Are Saying About Retirement Income
NEPC’s Bill Ryan appeared on the Broadcast Retirement Network to discuss what clients are thinking about when it comes to retirement income. View on the BRN website here or watch below.
FIN News: Inflation, Interest Rates Present Biggest Risks To Markets: NEPC Study
NEPC’s Brad Smith was quoted in a recent FIN News article to discuss concerns of plan sponsors found through our 2022 DB Flash Poll. View the article on FIN News’ site here.
The investment consultant’s 2022 DB Trends Flash Poll reveals the biggest risks to markets over the next 12 months in addition to how plan sponsors are assessing their glidepaths and managing allocations against the backdrop of this year’s heightened market volatility.
. . .
“It’s been nearly a decade since plan sponsors have had to keep factors like rapid inflation and rising rates in mind when rebalancing or determining their asset allocation strategies,” said NEPC Corporate Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution consultant Bradley Smith, in a statement.
. . .
“With rising concerns about how corporate profits will likely impact the market in the year ahead, our priority right now is helping ensure that our pension and defined contribution clients are well equipped to mitigate risk and have a clear plan of action in 2023 and beyond,” Smith continued.
ASPPA: Reticence and Risks Rife?
NEPC’s 2022 DB Flash Poll findings were featured in a recent article from the American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries (ASPPA) to discuss risks plan sponsors perceive and anticipate. View the article on ASPPA’s site here.
These are bracing times for retirement savers, and two recent reports offer a window into tensions savers feel and risks plan sponsors perceive and anticipate.
Economic uncertainty can breed slower progress in saving for retirement or even regression, LIMRA suggests. Even before the current economic conditions, they say, nearly 40% of those nearing retirement were very concerned that they would outlive their retirement savings.
. . .
“The investment consulting firm NEPC buttresses the current apprehension. In a November 2022 poll of corporations and non-profits, they report that the ability of the Federal Reserve to manage inflation was the top choice of what the biggest risks are to the markets in the next 12 months. Rising interest rates came in second.
Further, NEPC says that none of the respondents that had frozen their defined benefit plan said that they were going to unfreeze it or that they had even thought about doing so.”
Pensions & Investments: Plan Sponsors See Inflation, Lower Profit Margins as Biggest Risks to Stock Market
NEPC’s Brad Smith was quoted in a recent Pensions & Investments article to discuss concerns of plan sponsors found through our 2022 DB Flash Poll. View the article on Pensions & Investments’ site here.
CIO: What Do Pension Funds Worry Over Most
NEPC’s 2022 DB Flash Poll findings were featured in a recent CIO article to discuss new threats to pension plan sponsors. View the article on CIO’s site here.
NEPC survey says they are leery of rising interest rates, the Fed’s ability to handle inflation and profit margins.
. . .
“In an NEPC survey of plan sponsors, roughly one-third of whom held more than $1 billion in their defined benefit plans, the top risk was the Fed’s ability to manage inflation (listed by 32% of respondents). No. 2, at 27%, was rising interest rates. The third biggest risk (19%) was corporate profit margins. International problems—geopolitical risks of war in Europe (15%) and related to China (5%)—were next.”
PlanSponsor: DCIIA Announces Three New Advisory Councils
NEPC’s Bill Ryan was announced as chair of the newly created Institutional Consultant Advisory Council (ICAC), as part of the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association (DCIIA) in a recent PlanSponsor article. View the announcement on PlanSponsor’s site here.
The Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association announced today that its Retirement Research Center has created three new Advisory Councils: Plan Sponsor Advisory Council (PSAC), Advisor Institute Council (AIC) and Institutional Consultant Advisory Council (ICAC).
DCIIA also announced the new chairs for each council. Christina Elliott, the Executive Director of Ohio Deferred Compensation, will chair PSAC. Jim O’Shaughnessy, the President of Retirement and Private Wealth at Hub International, will chair AIC. Bill Ryan, a partner and Head of Defined Contribution Solutions at NEPC, will chair ICAC.
The three new councils will join the Academic Advisory Council (AAC).
“The Advisory Councils are a crucial component of our strategy around research and industry engagement,” said Lew Minsky, DCIIA president and CEO. He added the councils will be focused on “practical, actionable, and unbiased insights that are relevant to the entire retirement ecosystem.”
“The Councils have a critical role to play in ensuring that all industry stakeholders’ viewpoints, needs, and challenges are considered throughout the research lifecycle,” said Rob Austin, chair of the DCIIA Retirement Research Center Executive Committee.
PlanSponsor: Rising Interest Rates Top Institutional Investor Concerns
NEPC’s Brad Smith was featured in a recent PlanSponsor article to discuss the findings of our 2022 Governance Survey. View the article on PlanSponsor’s site here.
Rising interest rates, a potential economic recession and geopolitical tension are the top concerns impacting the portfolio construction of institutional investor organizations in the next six months, according to NEPC 2022 Governance Survey respondents.
. . .
One reason for the emphasis on rising interest rates is the effect rates have on corporate pension funds. Unlike for many investors, “inflation is beneficial for most corporate pension plans,” explained Brad Smith, partner at NEPC and a member of the firm’s corporate defined benefit team, in an email. “Since most U.S. pension plans don’t offer [cost of living adjustment] benefit increases, higher levels of inflation can be a benefit to plan sponsors. “The most immediate impact from higher expected inflation is higher interest and discount rates. As discount rates rise, the estimated value of pension liabilities fall.”
Smith added, “Provided the remaining diversifying assets don’t fall as much as the liability estimates, the plan’s funded status can actually rise. During this recent market environment, we have seen many of our clients’ funded status estimates hold steady despite the significant market selloff.”
NEPC scored the factors, in a range from one to five, with factors expected to have the greatest impact ranked lower, according to the survey.
Click here to continue reading the full PlanSponsor article.
Markets Group: Investing in Private Equity in '23 Could Prove Challenging to Over-Allocated Institutions
NEPC’s Josh Beers was quoted in a recent Markets Group article to discuss the importance of vintage year diversification. View the article on the Markets Group site here.
Institutional investors should be eager to deploy capital into private equity in 2023. The asset class, after all, capitalized on the economic downturns at the start of the century and during the Great Financial Crisis to produce stellar returns.
Speaking to the investment committee of the Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS), Corina Sylvia English, a principal with consultant Hamilton Lane, said, “the data shows the best time to invest in the asset class is right now. You are buying into a business at a low point – that is a value driver for operational focus.”
Scott Nuttall, co-CEO of KKR, concurred. Speaking on the investment firm’s third quarter earnings call, he said that “in an environment like this, companies still need capital. And we find private capital tends to have less competition at a time like this. Public markets are more difficult. Corporate M&A is more challenged. So, we’ve got a lot of capital to put to work. Companies still need it.”
But numerous institutional investors – particularly public pension funds – may need to overcome challenges to be highly active private equity investors in the coming year. These includes being overallocated to the asset class, a reduction in distributions and fund stakes selling at a discount in the secondary market. Industry observers, though, say that it is a necessity for investors to continue investing in the asset class and maintain exposure to the 2023 vintage year.
. . .
Josh Beers, a principal and head of private equity for NEPC, said institutional investors need to continue deploying capital into the private equity sector to ensure vintage year “diversification” within their portfolio. “It’s super important,” he said. “You can go through business cycles where there are some great opportunities and other cycles that are not great.” General partners, he said, on average take three years to deploy capital – a period in “which a lot can happen.”
Click here to continue reading the full Markets Group article.